Hiển thị các bài đăng có nhãn Arizona. Hiển thị tất cả bài đăng
Hiển thị các bài đăng có nhãn Arizona. Hiển thị tất cả bài đăng

Thứ Năm, 23 tháng 2, 2012

FiveThirtyEight: Mormon Voters Raise Romney's Advantage in Arizona

Arizona might have less symbolic importance than Michigan, but it is probably of more practical significance. That is because it’s one of the few Republican states to award its delegates on a truly winner-take-all basis, without any qualifications or complication. Get one more vote than your rivals in Arizona, and you take all 29 of its delegates.

The most tangible advantage in Arizona belongs to Mitt Romney, and it is because the state has a reasonably high Mormon population. In the 2008 primary there, Mormon voters constituted 11 percent of the electorate — and Mr. Romney won 88 percent of their votes, versus 8 percent for John McCain.

If Mr. Romney posts similar numbers among Mormon voters this year in Tuesday’s primary — and there’s no reason to think that he won’t — that works out a nine-point built-in advantage in the state.

Without that Mormon edge, in fact, the state would essentially be a toss-up. Mr. Romney is now projected to win the state by 11 points over all, according to a FiveThirtyEight forecast model, which works out to an 89 percent chance of winning given the uncertainty inherent in the forecast.

The 11-point advantage that the FiveThirtyEight model gives Mr. Romney is larger than his lead in all but one recent poll of the state. But the model is designed to be aggressive about identifying a trend, and there is perhaps the slightest hint of one toward Mr. Romney in Arizona. The two polls that have been in the field most recently — from NBC/Marist and We Ask America — gave him his largest advantage there.

With that said, there has been quite a bit of variance between different polls of the state, with Mr. Romney’s lead varying by margins of 3 to 16 points. I don’t know that there is anything special about Arizona that is causing this; we are also seeing a fairly wide spread in the polls in Michigan, as well as in national surveys. As there now seem to be differences in the level of voter enthusiasm for the candidates — more for Rick Santorum, less for Mr. Romney — the assumptions that pollsters make about turnout will tend to be more important.

Mr. Santorum’s deficit in Arizona is just large enough, however, that it would qualify as something of a surprise if he won the state. It might require either that he performs strongly at Wednesday’s debate in Mesa, Ariz.,  or that he simply beats the pollsters’ expectations on primary night itself, something he has done in several states so far.

Because there is no delegate value in merely keeping things close in Arizona, however, it is also worth watching to see whether Mr. Santorum essentially abandons the state and downplays expectations there, instead concentrating his efforts on Michigan, which also votes on Tuesday.

If Mr. Santorum wins Michigan narrowly but loses Arizona by a clear margin, he will probably fall further behind Mr. Romney in the delegate count given Michigan’s complex delegate-selection rules. Such an outcome, however, would very probably allow him to put a strong spin on the outcome — and a credible enough one, since if Mr. Romney loses Michigan, his native state, it is hard to know where he might win elsewhere in the Midwest.

But if Mr. Santorum loses both Arizona and Michigan, however narrowly, he would fall behind, according to both math and momentum.


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Republican Debate in Arizona Billed as the Season Finale

That was the position that political junkies found themselves in on Wednesday as CNN prepared to televise the 20th Republican presidential debate of the 2012 nomination race. There are no more debates on the conveyer belt — an abrupt change for a campaign season that has been punctuated by one every nine days on average from September to the most recent debate in January.

Some in the television news business deemed Wednesday’s debate a “season finale.” Charles P. Pierce of Esquire magazine suggested in a blog post that it be titled “A Very Special Episode,” a promotional line for TV shows that is now mostly a parody of the medium.

“They should invite the whole cast back, all the people who left the show for their own spinoffs, the way they brought Rhoda and Phyllis back when Mary Richards got fired at WJM,” Mr. Pierce wrote, alluding to the classic sitcom “The Mary Tyler Moore Show.”

Ever since the very beginning, last May 5 on the Fox News Channel, candidates advanced and retreated on the basis of the Republican debates; so, too, did television channels and moderators. Individual debates drew as many as 7.6 million viewers (ABC, Dec. 10), happily surprising executives who saw their networks’ reputations and finances benefit.

And now, suddenly, the show’s over?

Stay tuned, as they say.

CNN billed the Wednesday debate in Mesa, Ariz., as the final meeting of the four remaining candidates before the voting on March 6, Super Tuesday. There was to have been another on March 1, but last week Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Representative Ron Paul declined CNN’s invitation.

Television news executives have expressed optimism that if the Republican campaign lacks an unassailable front-runner after Super Tuesday, some of the remaining candidates will accept new invitations to debates.

“Front-runners are the ones who, typically, look at debates as events that pose more risk than reward,” Sam Feist, the Washington bureau chief for CNN, said in a telephone call from Mesa.

Chuck Todd, the political director for NBC News, said he suspected that “we’re going to go back to a more realistic debate schedule of one every month-ish.”

NBC, he said, is planning “at least one” more debate, though it has not yet proposed that to the Republican campaigns.

“There’s no point in asking them now,” Mr. Todd said. “They’re not going to make a decision until they absolutely have to.”

NBC’s debate in Florida on Jan. 23 attracted 7.1 million viewers, the second-highest total since May.

But, broadly speaking, the ratings for the debates did not climb a lot over time; CNN’s most recent debate, on Jan. 26, drew 100,000 fewer viewers than a debate it co-hosted in October, months before any caucuses or primaries had been held.

Perhaps political devotees were tuning in each time, but casual viewers were not — a suggestion made by some executives and backed up by polls that show relatively low levels of interest in the campaign among most Americans.

That was the punch line, at least, for Jimmy Fallon last week when he told the viewers of his late-night show that CNN would let some viewers ask the candidates questions on Wednesday.

“It’ll be awkward,” he said, “when they’re like, ‘This question’s from Mark in Texas.’ Mark asks: ‘What else is on?’ ”


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The Caucus: Arizona Republican Debate Fact Check

Times reporters take a closer look at some of the statements made by the Republican presidential candidates in Wednesday night’s debate.

Romney and the Auto Bailout

Mitt Romney provided a more nuanced explanation of his opposition to the federal loan package that helped rescue the auto industry in 2008 and 2009, saying there was “no way” he would have let American car companies implode. But a bipartisan group of auto industry executives, government officials and financial experts have said that if General Motors and Chrysler had followed his advice at the time and gone into bankruptcy, implosion is exactly what would have happened.

The context is Mr. Romney’s 2008 New York Times Op-Ed, in which he argued that Chrysler and General Motors should not receive federal aid. “Detroit needs a turnaround, not a check,” he wrote.

But auto industry executives and people who were involved in the government-mandated reorganization of the auto companies have said that the managed bankruptcy was not an option at the time Mr. Romney wrote his article. Furthermore, they have said, following a path into bankruptcy then would have caused far more severe job losses and even liquidation.

Mike Jackson, a Romney supporter and chief executive of AutoNation, the largest auto retailer in the country, said recently that Mr. Romney’s position on the auto bailout was a “circle that can’t be squared.”

To go through a managed bankruptcy, tens of billions of dollars in financing would have been necessary. Auto executives and government officials have said that the only entity at the time that could have provided that level of financing was the federal government. In late 2008 and early 2009, the credit markets seized up, making financing on that scale virtually impossible to come by.

Mr. Romney and others have argued that the markets would have provided that money if the government demurred. But even Mr. Romney’s former firm, Bain Capital, declined to help General Motors when asked in 2009 to invest in the automaker’s European division, said one person with direct knowledge of the conversations.

The most problematic comment on the auto bailout, however, was made not by Mr. Romney but by Newt Gingrich, who said foreign automakers like Toyota and Nissan were doing “just fine” at the time the federal government bailed out domestic carmakers. Mr. Gingrich made the remarks in an attempt to draw a connection between the American auto companies’ high labor costs and their decline. But at that point, car manufacturers were doing poorly regardless of whether they were foreign or domestic.

In early 2009, Toyota reported its first loss in 70 years — $7.7 billion. Nissan was also in bad shape at that time, reporting $2.4 billion in losses. Honda, another Japanese automaker, also lost billions then.

– Jeremy W. Peters

Santorum on Contraception

Rick Santorum had a hard time explaining his stance on contraception because he has made numerous statements that appear to be in conflict.

Did he clear it up Wednesday night? Not really. “I have a personal moral objection” to contraception, he said, “but I’ve voted for bills that included it too.”

This drew a big boo from the audience.

Last year, Mr. Santorum told an evangelical blog, “One of the things I will talk about that no president has talked about before is, I think, the dangers of contraception in this country.”

He added: “Many in the Christian faith have said, ‘Well, that’s O.K. Contraception’s O.K.’ It’s not O.K. because it’s a license to do things in the sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be.”

So, his position seems to be that while he personally opposes birth control, he would not ban it as president. But he did not spell it out clearly tonight. Then again, he successfully deflected Mr. Romney’s attempt to press him on the issue by bringing up Mr. Romney’s health care plan in Massachusetts.

– Katharine Q. Seelye

Santorum Waffles on Title X

Mr. Santorum may have had a “I voted for it before I voted against it” moment Wednesday night.

In response to an assertion by Mr. Paul that he had voted to fund Planned Parenthood, Mr. Santorum said: “As Congressman Paul knows, I opposed Title X funding. I’ve always opposed Title X funding.” He quickly added, “But it’s included in a large appropriation bill that includes a whole host of other things.” Here the audience started to boo.

Technically, Mr. Santorum was saying that he opposed Title X funding — not that he voted against it — but he was implying that he had voted against it. Then when he said it was included in a larger bill, the audience cried foul.

Title X, by the way, is the major funding vehicle for family planning programs. It was signed into law in 1970 by a Republican president, Richard Nixon, who declared, “Contraception for all.”

Mr. Santorum said that because Title X “was always pushed through,” he countered by pushing for Title XX to provide funding for abstinence programs, saying they “actually work in keeping children from being sexually active instead of facilitating children from being sexually active.”

Finally, he got around to an admission: “Yes, I — I admit I voted for large appropriation bills and there were things in there I didn’t like.”

His bottom line, he said, is that as president, “I will defund Planned Parenthood; I will not sign any appropriation bill that funds Planned Parenthood.”

Mr. Santorum’s recent statements are likely to add to the confusion about his stance on the issue. Since 2006, he has cited his support for Title X to show that he is not opposed to funding for contraception.

As recently as last week, on “CBS This Morning,” Rick Santorum told the host, Charlie Rose, that he has no problems with federal funds for contraceptives, saying that he voted for Title X funds in the Senate.

– Katharine Q. Seelye

Obama and Iran

Mr. Romney pressed his case that President Obama had practiced appeasement toward Iran, but he mischaracterized Mr. Obama’s position on potential military action. The president has repeatedly said that military action against Tehran remains on the table.

It is also not true that Mr. Obama agreed to Russia’s demand to give up missile defense facilities in Eastern Europe. He negotiated with Russia over the scale of the system, in an effort to win Moscow’s agreement to the Start arms reduction treaty. In his discussion of national security, Mr. Romney also said the administration wanted to cut the Pentagon’s budget by “roughly a trillion dollars,” which is twice what Mr. Obama has suggested.

Mr. Santorum is correct in saying that in 2009, the Obama administration cut funding for a United States-based group that documented human rights abuses in Iran. But the State Department continues to finance other groups that seek to block censorship of the Internet in Iran. Mr. Santorum also slightly misstated Mr. Obama’s decision to open an embassy in Syria. The United States withdrew its ambassador to Damascus under President George W. Bush; Mr. Obama decided to send an envoy back to Syria before withdrawing him recently because of the civil strife.

– Mark Landler

Expanding E-Verify

When Mr. Romney spoke of Arizona as a model for fighting illegal immigration, he was referring to one of several laws Arizona passed in recent years that requires employers to confirm that new hires are legally authorized to work through a federal system called E-Verify.

The system, which is voluntary at the federal level, has been growing rapidly, with 288,000 employers now using it nationwide. It has proven to be a reasonably effective and efficient way for employers to avoid hiring illegal immigrants, and it discourages those immigrants from seeking jobs in companies known to use the system. There is bipartisan support in Congress for some kind of national system to verify the immigration status and work authorization of new hires.

However, there has been debate over proposals currently before Congress to expand the E-Verify system, making it mandatory for all employers nationwide. If that happened, all new hires — including Americans as well as immigrants — would have to provide documentation to verify their identity and eligibility to work. Some critics, including Republicans, have said that could become another costly and intrusive federal mandate.

E-Verify currently relies on data from the Social Security system, which has been shown to have errors that could be costly and time-consuming for Americans and legal immigrants to correct.

Also, farmers across the country are strongly opposed to making E-Verify mandatory nationwide without a new guest worker program to provide legal migrant labor for agriculture. So while the general idea that Mr. Romney proposes has support in theory, putting it into practice nationally is not easy — particularly for Republicans.

That said, all four of the candidates avoided the hot-button issue: what to do about 11 million illegal immigrants already living in the country.

– Julia Preston

Gingrich and Earmarks

Earlier in the debate, three of the Republicans – Mr. Gingrich, Mr. Santorum and Mr. Romney — jousted as they often do on the subject of earmarks, which are spending items that members of Congress insert in the annual appropriations bills to benefit a particular project or program backed by constituents or supporters. Mr. Romney has criticized both of his rivals for their use of earmarks when each was in Congress. As the moderator, CNN’s John King, indicated, earmarked spending has always been a minuscule piece of federal spending – typically less than 1 percent.

Mr. King asked Mr. Gingrich to respond to Mr. Romney’s criticism that Mr. Gingrich, as speaker of the House from 1995 through 1998, raised earmarking to an art form. Mr. Gingrich, rather than respond directly, recalled that the federal budget was balanced when he was speaker.

Mr. Gingrich, as speaker, did preside over a period in which the number and total cost of earmarks spiraled, and Republican leaders openly encouraged new members to seek earmarks to buttress their local standing. In 1992, when he was still in the minority, Representative Gingrich said, “I am committed to hunting down every appropriation … that is some politician taking care of himself.”

But in 1995, Mr. Gingrich’s first year as speaker, the new Republican-led Congress approved a record 1,430 earmarked projects worth $10 billion, according to the conservative group Citizens Against Government Waste. The totals escalated annually. Mr. Gingrich was forced to resign his office in late 1998 after a fraud scandal and Republican election losses. But Republicans remained in control of the House through 2006, when there were 9,963 earmarks worth $29 billion. Disgust among conservative voters with the trend, and scandals surrounding the earmarks, was a factor that year in Republicans’ election losses, which gave control of the House and Senate to Democrats.

Earmarks are still a part of the budget process, but Congress and the executive branch disclose them. And nonpartisan groups like Citizens Against Government Waste, with its annual “Pig Book,” continue to report on the spending.

– Jackie Calmes

Controlling the Federal Debt

The Republican debate opened with a question from the audience that allowed each of the four remaining candidates to claim that they would bring the mounting federal debt under control. But nonpartisan analysts have concluded otherwise for the proposals to date from Mr. Romney, Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Santorum.

Another group will weigh in on Thursday: the U.S. Budget Watch project of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a longstanding nonprofit group that includes former members of Congress, administration officials and budget experts of both major parties, will issue a report showing that all three Republicans would add to the projected debt. Each candidate has proposed deep spending cuts in coming years, but the reductions are exceeded by the additional tax cuts they propose.

– Jackie Calmes

Santorum and Romney's Earmarks

In recent weeks, Mr. Santorum’s rivals – and Mr. Romney in particular – have hammered him over his use of earmarks while in Congress. John King, tonight’s debate moderator, asked Mr. Santorum about the topic directly. He asked if there were any earmarks Mr. Santorum regretted and, pointing out that Mr. Santorum has attacked Mr. Romney over earmarks he secured to help the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, he asked if Mr. Santorum thought the Olympics were an improper use of earmarks.

In his answer, Mr. Santorum first defended his use of earmarks, as he has in the past. In multiple interviews, he has said that some are necessary, adding that there are “good earmarks and bad earmarks.”

Switching to the Salt Lake City Olympics, which Mr. Romney helped turn around, Mr. Santorum said that he no problem with the federal funding Mr. Romney secured – in fact, Mr. Santorum volunteered, he had even voted in favor of some of the earmarks – but that Mr. Romney was a hypocrite for attacking Mr. Santorum over earmarks after having used them to his own advantage. Mr. Romney, he added, asked for “tens of millions” in federal funds to help save the 2002 Olympics.

This is largely true. When Mr. Romney headed to Utah, he did so with the help of about $1.5 billion in federal funding, including $60 million for security. The Democratic National Committee has already made an issue of Mr. Romney’s own use of earmarks, including releasing a video that attacks him over the Olympics funds. .

In his answer, Mr. Santorum mentioned his specific use of earmarks. During his time in Congress, Mr. Santorum did request a lot of earmarks – Taxpayers for Common Sense, a budget watchdog group, estimates that he requested more than $1 billion. In the defense appropriations bill for the 2006 fiscal year, for instance, the group says that Mr. Santorum helped secure 54 earmarks, costing $124 million in federal financing.

When it was Mr. Romney’s turn to respond, he accused Mr. Santorum, as he has in the past, of supporting the “Bridge to Nowhere,” a bridge in Alaska that cost almost $400 million and was intended to connect Ketchikan to a sparsely populated island with an airport. In 2005, Mr. Santorum did vote with the majority of the Senate in favor of a transportation bill that included the bridge, though the money for it (roughly $225 million) was a minuscule portion of the overall bill, which was nearly $300 billion.

Though earmarks are currently being demonized by both parties, there is nothing inherently wrong with a legislator requesting federal spending in his or her home district or state, or setting aside federal money for a state project.

– Ashley Parker

The Auto Bailout and the U.A.W.

Several Republican candidates, especially Mr. Gingrich, charged that President Obama gave in to the autoworkers’ unions when his administration rescued the auto industry in early 2009, and Mr. Gingrich went so far as to say that Mr. Obama turned the companies over to the United Auto Workers.

The auto rescue of General Motors and Chrysler was worked out between the unions and management, with both sides making concessions they never had before as a condition for their federal loans, conditions set by the Obama administration’s team.

In contrast, a smaller rescue package in late 2008 from the Bush administration had no such conditions. Mr. Gingrich also cited a number of auto companies with operations in the United States that did not need bailouts, but he the ones he named are foreign-owned, like Toyota. The only major American company that did not take federal assistance was Ford, but Ford supported the rescue program because if G.M. and Chrysler had failed, that would have threatened the entire auto-manufacturing supply chain in the United States, which in turn would be a threat to Ford.

– Jackie Calmes

Repealing Health Care Law

Mr. Santorum said repealing the health care insurance law that President Obama signed in 2010 would reduce the deficit. His rival Mr. Romney has repeatedly made the same claim in debates and repeatedly been judged incorrect.

Mr. Romney said repealing the law would save $95 billion a year. The Congressional Budget Office has projected that the health care law would reduce deficits by $210 billion in the first decade from fiscal year 2012 through 2021 given taxes, fees and health cost reductions mandated by the law. Similarly, the office reported that legislation passed last year by the House Republican majority to repeal the law would increase deficits by the same amount.

While the budget office has declined to put an exact figure on projected savings of the health care law beyond the first decade, given the uncertainty of such long-range projections, it concluded that the savings would be in the range of half a percentage point of the nation’s gross domestic product, a substantial amount. The Obama administration has projected that the savings in the second decade will exceed $1 trillion.

In November, the nonpartisan fact-checking group PolitiFact said of Mr. Romney’s claim: “We rate his statement false.”

– Jackie Calmes

Romney and Massachusetts Taxes

Mr. Santorum, rebutting claims that he expanded government spending in Congress, just claimed that Mr. Romney “raised taxes and fees” by $750 million as governor of Massachusetts.

There is truth to that claim — though there is debate about the terminology. As governor, Mr. Romney raised more than $700 million in revenue through two major measures: first, he increased fees on a variety of government services, like the price of a commercial driving license; second, he closed dozens of corporate tax loopholes, requiring corporations to pay bigger tax bills.

Were those, technically, “tax” increases? Mr. Romney did not think so, perhaps unsurprisingly — he had run for governor on a “no new taxes” pledge. But many Massachusetts business leaders — and the prominent Washington anti-tax group Americans for Tax Reform — said otherwise. They assailed the changes as tax increases by another name.

“They changed the laws and the rules to significantly raise taxes,” Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, has said of Mr. Romney’s corporate tax loophole changes. “That is a tax increase.”

– Michael Barbaro

Gingrich and a Balanced Budget

Trip Gabriel previously looked at Mr. Gingrich’s claim that he helped balance the budget four years in a row:

Mr. Gingrich has made a campaign theme out of how the economy improved when he was last in office, as speaker of the House in the 1990s. In his first answer, challenged about his conservative credentials, Mr. Gingrich said he was responsible for four consecutive balanced budgets and paid down $400 billion on the national debt.

But in only two years when he was speaker was the budget balanced, in fiscal 1998 and 1999. Although the government remained in the black for two more years, Mr. Gingrich left office in January 1999 and had no role in those later budgets. The total surplus when he was speaker was $194.9 billion, not $400 billion.

And it takes two to tango — Mr. Gingrich didn’t mention that these years of government surpluses were the result of policies that fostered an economic boom, many worked out with President Bill Clinton. Mr. Gingrich opposed a 1993 tax increase widely credited with helping to begin reducing the deficit.

– The New York Times


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Santorum takes heavy fire in Arizona Republican debate

MESA, Arizona (Reuters) - Mitt Romney is fighting his way back into the driving seat in the Republican presidential race, putting in a strong debate performance in Arizona and gaining in polls against conservative rival Rick Santorum.

An aggressive Romney repeatedly put Santorum on the defensive in a CNN debate on Wednesday and attacked the former U.S. senator and staunch social conservative for supporting big-spending government programs.

Romney has also battled his way into a slight lead in a new poll in Michigan, which along with Arizona will hold a primary contest on February 28. Romney had trailed Santorum by as much as double digits a week ago in the Michigan race.

The pace of the Republican race quickens dramatically next month, with 22 state nominating contests in March, including 10 on "Super Tuesday" March 6.

"This debate will really give Romney some momentum heading into the Michigan primary," Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said. "Santorum clearly was having a hard time having to apologize and explain so many of his votes."

The debate was Santorum's first time in the political spotlight since charging into a national lead after winning three contests on February 7 in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado.

But his sometimes awkward defense of votes he cast in the Senate, including his claim that politics was a "team sport" and that he sometimes had to vote for bills that did not like, could hurt his support among conservatives tired of Washington politics-as-usual.

"There is always an excuse," rival Ron Paul said of Santorum's various explanations. "That's what the problem is with Washington," said Paul, a Texas congressman who described Santorum's fiscal conservatism as "fake."

The primary in Michigan, where Romney was born and raised and his father was an auto executive and popular governor, has become a must-win for the former Massachusetts governor and former head of a private equity group.

A Romney loss there would be crippling blow that would set off alarm bells among Republicans about his ability to win the allegiance of conservatives, ensuring a long and potentially draining battle for the nomination.

But a win in Michigan and Arizona would put Romney back in command in a race that has featured a series of conservative rivals who have risen to challenge him only to fall back into the pack.

Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, is the latest candidate to seriously contest the party's nomination to face Democratic President Barack Obama in a November 6 general election.

On Thursday, Romney will speak to a builders' group in Arizona before heading to Michigan for an evening rally of the conservative Tea Party movement. On Friday, he will address the Detroit Economic Club. Santorum is fund-raising in Texas on Thursday.

POLLS TIGHTEN

New polls in Michigan and Arizona on Wednesday showed Romney gaining ground on Santorum. He held a slight 2-point edge on Santorum in an NBC/Marist poll in Michigan, and a 16-point edge in an NBC/Marist poll in Arizona, where a CNN/Time poll earlier in the week gave him just a 4-point edge.

The broader campaign battleground in March could allow Romney to exercise his financial and organizational edge on his rivals, and put him in a strong position to knock them out and wrap up the race at least by April, if not earlier.

Santorum may have missed his chance at Wednesday's debate.

"Santorum needed a strong performance in the debate and he didn't get it," Republican strategist Ford O'Connell said. "All eyes were on him. He had an opening and he missed it."

A devout Catholic, Santorum is best known for conservative positions on religious freedoms, abortion and gay marriage, but Romney took aim at him frequently on Wednesday night as a big spender.

"I'm looking at his historic record - voting for raising the debt ceiling five different times without voting for compensating cuts," Romney said.

"Voting to fund Planned Parenthood, to expand the Department of Education. During his term in the Senate, spending grew by some 80 percent of the federal government," he said. Planned Parenthood provides abortion, birth control and other health services to women.

Former U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich, who represented Georgia while he served in Congress, is hoping to rebound from his recent drop in the polls to reassert himself during some of the March contests in Southern states like Georgia, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana.

No other debates are scheduled in the Republican race, although more could be added if the contest stretches into April and beyond.

(Writing by John Whitesides; Editing by Alistair Bell and Paul Simao)


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Republican Candidates Battle as Arizona and Michigan Races Tighten

In the brilliant sunshine of Arizona, Rick Santorum aggressively challenged Mitt Romney in a state where the Tea Party is strong and the politics of immigration are poised to take center stage at a debate on Wednesday night.

Ken Elzerman removed signs for Rick Santorum before Santorum's opponent, Mitt Romney, spoke at a factory in Shelby, Mich., on Tuesday.

When: Wednesday at 8 p.m. Eastern time

Where: Mesa Arts Center in Arizona

Participants: Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum

Sponsors: CNN and the Republican Party of Arizona

TV: CNN

Live blogging and analysis: nytimes.com/politics

The Election 2012 iPhone AppA one-stop destination for the latest political news — from The Times and other top sources. Plus opinion, polls, campaign data and video.

Dennis Lennox carried Mitt Romney signs before a Romney appearance at a factory in Shelby, Mich., on Tuesday.

And in the gritty cold of Michigan, the advertising air war intensified, as Mr. Romney increasingly faced questions about his conservative credentials from voters in his home state, a place of grim economic news and plenty of cultural conservatives.

Together, the two states — separated by about 1,700 miles — are the immediate battlegrounds for a Republican presidential contest that appears to be tightening drastically in the week before voters go to the polls to award the biggest single-day cache of delegates since the race began.

Mr. Santorum held two events in Arizona on Tuesday as he sought to seize on anecdotal and polling evidence that Mr. Romney’s large lead in the state may be quickly evaporating.

Speaking to about 500 people at the Maricopa County Lincoln Day luncheon, Mr. Santorum tipped his hat to the Tea Party movement, many of whose members had packed into the large Shriners’ hall to hear him speak.

“We need to take everything from food stamps to Medicaid to housing programs to education training programs,” he said. “We need to cut ’em, cap ’em, freeze ’em, send ’em to the states and say that there has to be a time limit and a work requirement,” he said, the rest of his words drowned out by thunderous applause.

Mr. Santorum is scheduled to address Tea Party activists near Tucson on Wednesday.

Gov. Jan Brewer of Arizona, who plans to make an endorsement in the race after the debate, said in an interview that Mr. Santorum was eroding Mr. Romney’s advantage because “he comes across as straightforward, honest and solid.” She said she believes that Mr. Romney is conservative, but that many voters do not.

Mr. Romney has been building an organization in Arizona for months, aided by an endorsement from Senator John McCain, the state’s senior Republican. But on the eve of the nationally televised debate, one of Mr. Romney’s top supporters in the state expressed concern about his chances of winning. Randy Pullen, a former chairman of the Arizona Republican Party who endorsed Mr. Romney last year, said Tuesday that he was no longer certain that Mr. Romney would win the state’s primary. He said he believed Mr. Romney’s 20-point lead had evaporated, declaring, “Now it’s a dead heat.”

Mr. Pullen said Mr. Romney’s campaign had been unsuccessful — and, in his view, had not tried hard enough — in its effort to connect with Republican activists willing to unite around beating President Obama.

“There has to be some enthusiasm in the race,” Mr. Pullen said in an interview. “Right now there’s not much. I don’t regret my decision, I’m just frustrated. I think he’s honest and straightforward, but the real Romney needs to come out. We need to see the energy, and we need to see the passion we’ve seen from the other candidates.”

In Michigan, Mr. Romney held a town-hall meeting in Shelby to talk about the difficult economy in the state and his plans to help turn around the nation’s fiscal situation. Mr. Romney hinted Tuesday that he would soon unveil a new tax plan that would feature “a flatter, fairer, broader-based tax system.”

But voters at the town hall peppered him with questions about social issues instead, forcing him off message.

It was a vivid reminder of how much the Republican primaries next week may turn on terrain that has repeatedly frustrated Mr. Romney’s political ambitions this year: questions about his commitment to the conservative cause.

“I want to hear you say it,” said Feleiteau Epley, 58, to Mr. Romney at the Shelby Town Hall. “That you are 100 percent pro-life. No abortions.”

Mr. Romney did not oblige. Instead, he described himself as “pro-life” — making room for exceptions in the case of incest, rape and when the life of the mother is at stake — a position that left Ms. Epley, who is considering voting for Mr. Santorum, unsatisfied.

The latest Michigan polls generally show a tight race between the two candidates after a surge in support for Mr. Santorum. A Detroit News survey last week showed the race effectively tied.

Michael D. Shear reported from Washington, and Jeff Zeleny from Phoenix. Reporting was contributed by Michael Barbaro from Shelby, Mich., Katharine Q. Seelye from Phoenix, and Dalia Sussman and Allison Kopicki from New York.


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Chủ Nhật, 19 tháng 2, 2012

The Caucus: Romney Campaigner in Arizona Resigns After Accusation

8:12 p.m. | Updated A revised version of this blog post is available here.

Paul Babeu, an up-and-coming member of the Republican Party, stepped down from his role as a co-chairman of Mitt Romney’s Arizona campaign on Saturday, in the wake of allegations that he threatened to deport a Mexican ex-boyfriend when the man refused to keep quiet about their relationship.

Mr. Babeu was the sheriff of Pinal County and made national headlines for his tough stance on illegal immigration. He endorsed Mr. Romney in October and is running for Congress in Arizona’s Fourth District.

The news of Mr. Babeu’s decision to step down from the Romney campaign was first reported by The Arizona Republic.

On Thursday, The Phoenix New Times reported the allegations of a 34-year-old Mexican man whom they identified only as “Jose.” He claimed that when he refused to sign an agreement that he would never mention his affair with Mr. Babeu, which lasted years, the sheriff and his lawyer tried to intimidate him with threats of deportation. Mr. Babeu has denied the charges.

“Sheriff Babeu has stepped down from his volunteer position with the campaign so he can focus on the allegations against him,” said Andrea Saul, a campaign spokeswoman, in an e-mail statement. “We support his decision.”

When Mr. Babeu threw his support behind Mr. Romney in October, however, he had nothing but kind words for the sheriff.

“It is an honor to have the support of Sheriff Babeu,” Mr. Romney said at the time, in an e-mail announcement released by his campaign. “His efforts working to protect our border are critical to lowering crime, reducing illegal immigration and stopping both drug and human trafficking. Sheriff Babeu has been a leader in the call for the federal government to secure the border. As president, I will work with leaders like Sheriff Babeu to protect our Southern border, provide the required assistance from the federal government and put an end to the magnets that cause illegal immigration.”

The Pinal County Sheriff’s Department is standing behind Mr. Babeu.

“The entire sheriff’s department supports the sheriff,” said Elias Johnson, a spokesman for the department. “He has a right to his private life. None of the allegations happened when he was supporting the citizens of Pinal County. He has a right to a private life just as every other citizen has a right to a private life. His public record speaks for itself.”


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Romney Arizona Co-Chair Resigns Amid Allegation

Mr. Babeu made national headlines for his tough stance on illegal immigration. He endorsed Mr. Romney in October and is running for Congress in Arizona’s Fourth District.

The news of Mr. Babeu’s decision to step down from the Romney campaign was first reported by The Arizona Republic.

On Thursday, The Phoenix New Times reported the allegations of a 34-year-old Mexican man whom it identified only as “Jose.” He said that when he refused to sign an agreement that he would never mention his relationship with Mr. Babeu, which he said lasted for years, the sheriff and his lawyer tried to intimidate him with threats of deportation.

In a press conference on Saturday, Mr. Babeu said that he had had a personal relationship with Jose, but denied that he had threatened to deport him. The accusations, he said, “are absolutely, completely false — except for the issues that refer to me as being gay. Because that’s the truth. I am gay.”

Even though Mr. Babeu was a minor figure in the Romney campaign, the accusations came at a less than ideal time. With Arizona and Michigan holding primaries at the end of the month, Mr. Romney is struggling to shore up social conservatives’ support and to fend off Rick Santorum, who is surging after winning contests in Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota.

“Sheriff Babeu has stepped down from his volunteer position with the campaign so he can focus on the allegations against him,” Andrea Saul, a campaign spokeswoman, said in an e-mail statement. “We support his decision.”

The press conference that Mr. Babeu held on Saturday largely turned into a call to look beyond his sexual orientation.

He defined himself as an American, and appealed for voters and the public to view him through the lens of his military service and time in law enforcement.

“I want to be judged on my service: 20 years in the military, two deployments — including one in Iraq — a police officer who has responded to thousands of calls for help, and a sheriff who has cut response times while reducing my own budget,” he said in a statement.

Jose also told The Phoenix New Times that Mr. Babeu e-mailed explicit photographs of himself to an anonymous man whom he met on a Web site called Adam4Adam.


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Thứ Ba, 7 tháng 2, 2012

Big Lead for Romney in Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Nationally

Mitt Romney is way ahead of Newt Gingrich in several of the states that vote this month, and Gingrich has lost his lead nationally, too, since he was beaten in the Florida primary. The numbers indicate the drama of the primary election is over, even if only a tiny fraction of delegates have been awarded. Here's our guide to today's polls and which ones matter.

RELATED: Newt Crushes Romney in South Carolina

Findings: Romney has the support of 45 percent of Nevadans likely to vote in the Republican caucus Saturday. Gingrich trails him with 25 percent, followed by Rick Santorum with 11 percent, and Ron Paul with 9 percent.
Pollster: Las Vegas Review Journal/ 8NewsNow/ Cannon Survey Center
Methodology: Phone interviews of 426 Republicans who plan to vote Saturday between January 27 and January 31 -- before Romney won the Florida primary.
Why it matters: It doesn't look like this is going to be the vote where Gingrich comes roaring back. And The New York Times' Nate Silver points out it's not looking good in Arizona or Michigan either.
Caveat: In fact, it's possible Romney will destroy his competition by even wider margins. Slate's Dave Weigel points out that in 2008, polls showed Romney with 26 percent, John McCain with 21 percent, and Paul at the back of the pack with 7 percent. The actual vote was Romney with 51 percent, followed by Paul with 14 percent.

RELATED: GOP Debate to Lead the Free World

Findings: Romney leads Gingrich in Arizona 48 percent to Gingrich's 24 percent. Santorum has 13 percent. The state votes February 28.
Pollster: Rasmussen
Methodology: Robocalls to 750 likely Republican primary voters on February 1.
Why it matters: There's a large enough Latino population in Arizona (16 percent of registered voters) that the Obama campaign thinks it's within the realm of possibility for him to win it. And Romney has frustrated some Republicans with his move rightward on immigration -- he says he'd veto the Dream Act, a promise that 54 percent of Latino voters say would make them less likely to vote for a candidate. And yet Romney is way ahead.
Caveat: Rasmussen leans right.

RELATED: GOP Debate: Mitt Gets Under Newt's Skin

Findings: Gingrich has lost his national lead: Romney's ahead 31 percent to 25 percent.
Pollster: Gallup
Methodology: Tracking poll of 1,159 Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters from January 28 to February 1.
Why it matters: Gingrich was able to claim that while Romney had destroyed his lead in Florida with negative ads, the folks whose TVs hadn't been blown up still favored him. That is no longer the case. Maybe that's because another Gallup poll this week showed that registered voters thought Romney was more presidential than Gingrich by 59 percent to 39 percent.
Caveat: A big event could change things, theoretically. Like Romney being silly enough to make an appearance with Donald Trump.

RELATED: GOP Debate Preview: Hey, We're Not So Bad

Findings: Low-income and high-income Republican voters disagree over how much the government should do to help poor people. Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters making less than $30,000 a year, 57 percent think the government doesn't do enough for the poor. Only 18 percent say it does too much. But those Republican and Republican-leaning voters who make $75,000 or more a year split the other way: of those making $75,000 or more, 44 percent think the government does too much, while only 21 percent think it doesn't do enough. More than half of the low-income set think the American economic system unfairly favors the wealthy; only 28 percent of the high-income folks share that view.
Pollster: Pew Research Center
Methodology: Survey of registered voters from September 22 to October 4.
Why it matters: Pew posted these findings Thursday amid the controversy over Romney's comment that he's not concerned about poor people. Poor people are concerned about poor people, even if they vote Republican. Romney said his campaign is focusing on helping the middle class, not the poor or rich.
Caveat: The poll is older, and voters' opinions could change as the general election heats up and we talk about this stuff all day.


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